Sunday, April 15, 2007

Investing psychology

For the last few days, I've been pondering a new way of thinking about investing. The world's best investors say that they invest in people not in companies. But no one seems to know a easy consistent way of identifying these winning people. I think I do now. However, the only thing to note is that people are just one part of the equation. The company culture is another. It is only when these two are consistent will you have a winner in hand. So a complete profile subjective profile of a company, as well as the people who manage these companies should yield the winners that should be easily verifiable with the reported numbers. What is more, one should be able to even predict which of the events will be sustainable and which ones will fail. The noise in this analysis is the unpredictible nature of some events that may result in success even when one is incompetent. I'll have more to say on this later..

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